Gujarat was a tie breaker match for both parties. Both parties tried very hard in campaign and boast about their wining. BJP’s main aim was to gain clear majority. They won. They are going to make government in Gujarat again.
Definitely they have won with clear majority but they can not take it very lightly. This is alarm bell for them, if they talk about development then they fulfill it, not just on paper! People of Gujarat is not blind, you can not fool them. They cast vote by seeing candidate not party.
BJP also need to consider one more thing, they only win because of Narendra Modi and Amit Shah. BJP needs to showcase local leader as compared to Modi, every time you cannot rely on Modi.Gujarat got what he want, people never wanted to win Congress and want to control the power of BJP leaders.
In short people chose;
- Welcomes development.
- Show mirror to BJP government that if you will stop working, we, people of Gujarat can decline BJP government.
- Declined racism.
- And explained some fool people that government will not be from you.
If you see the analysis of seats then you can see that BJP won every seats in cities and lost many (almost all!) seats in village. When demonetization and GST was a biggest issue in south Gujarat (Surat, Vadodara) but BJP won with clear majority in south Gujarat.
While in Saurashtra, major people of Saurashtra are farmers. Farmers have so many issues regarding policies of BJP government. Undoubtedly BJP did development in cities but if you want to develop one state then you should consider all people same. BJP leaders understood this thing very well after the results came out, and they will now concentrate their focus towards farmers also. So, development will surely happen and this it will be very solid because of election of 2019.
Results:
BJP: 99 (-16), vote: 49.1% (+1.1%)
INC: 80 (+19), vote: 41.4% (+2.00%)
Others: 3 (-3)
Zone wise:
Saurashtra+: BJP - 23, INC - 30
Central: BJP - 37, INC - 22
North: BJP - 14, INC - 17
South: BJP - 25, INC - 10
Limelight:
- In 25 years BJP got lowest seats.
- INC got 80+ seats after 32 years.
- Top leaders of both parties faced defeat.
- Obscured effect of Patidar and GST.
- 12 women, 3 Muslim candidates won.
GST & Patidar factors:
GST and Patidar was the biggest factors working for this election. If we see GST affected seats then BJP got 26 from 28. Rahul Gandhi proclaimed GST as ‘Gabbar Singh Tex’, yet no effective result was appear in final election result. Surat was highly affected with GST where BJP got 15 seats out from 16! As UP approved demonetization, Surat approved GST.
And for Patidar, total 45 seats were belong to Patidar where BJP got 25 and INC got 20. The heart of Patidar movement, Mahesana, Varacha and Nicole seats were won by BJP.
Hardik Patel: He told that, he will again start the movement within a week. This time he wants to start movement in cities also.
Alpesh Thakor: He became MLA. Yet, he could not be useful to INC.
Jignesh Mevani: He became MLA. He could join INC. He will work to unite 7% Dalits.
NOTA:
NOTA got 5.50 lakh votes that means 1.8% votes, which was greater than 7 INC leader and 4 BJP leader’s vote. INC leader Arjun Modhvadiya lost with 1858 votes where NOTA got 3433! NOTA’s total votes are equal (approximately) too BSP and NCP’s total votes.
Points which attracted Youth & Women:
Development. Youth chose development rather than temple and Hinduism. Rahul Gandi visited temples and tried to attract people of Gujarat, but he only won in Somanath, INC managed to save their seat in Somanath.
Modi addressed people in Gujarati, people liked it. In Suarat, Pranchi and Kalol PM stated that he knows more than 100 people by their names which attracted people. Dholka, Bhuj, Bhavnagar and Surat painted in saffron color where PM addressed public rallies.
Instead of INC’s rejuvenation(navsarjan) youth got attracted towards development of BJP government. PM rarely talked about development in his rallies still using social media BJP managed to attract youth on development point. Youth entrepreneurship, employment oriented policies, metro and bullet train were trending topics in this BJP campaign.
Women empowerment was also one of the important points in their campaign. BJP gave first female CM Mrs. Anandiben Patel, Muslim women attracted because of Tripal talaq, In local election women will get benefit of 33% reservation. Girl’s education, save girls, Maa Amrutam like women oriented policies helped BJP.
BJP won cities. BJP - 43, INC -12
INC won villages. BJP - 56, INC - 71
Shrot bytes:
Effective factor: Modi’s campaign.
Shocking story: Cities approved ‘development’ and villages disapproved it. Unemployment is the biggest problem of youth and that is the reason that this time big class of youth chose INC rather than BJP. And last thing, all during the GST movement, where violence took place those all seats were won by BJP.
Who won? BJP is going to make their government 6th time in Gujarat but seats were surprisingly became less. Gujarati people warned BJP this time and did not accept INC.
Modi v Rahul:
Surat:
Modi took advantage of statement given by Manishankar aiyyar because Surat was highly affected by GST and demonetization. Rahul raised issues related to GST and demonetization because businessmen and merchants were highly disappointed with those actions by Modi.
Result goes in favour of BJP. BJP won 16 seats where INC won 1.
Morbi:
Modi raised issue regarding Machhu dam terror. Morbi is ceramic region of Gujarat and businessmen of Morbi’s are affected with GST and demonetization. Other than that Morbi is also affected by Patidar movement, Modi wanted to regain their focus in BJP but he failed. Thus, BJP lost their 4 seats in Morbi.
Bhuj:
Modi stated here that, “I will sell tea but never country!” Modi raised point regarding country service because he wanted to regain focus of people and farmers in BJP. Yet, result was shocking still Bhuj, Anjar and Gandhidham seats were won by BJP.
Rahul aslo visited here. He raised issue related to ignorance of farmers, farmer related policies, proper price of crops, water dislocation but he could not get success to attract farmers yet he managed to save his 3 seats.
Somnath:
Rahul proclaimed himself as greatest lord Shiva devotee. In 2012, BJP had 3 seats and INC had only 1. This time adopting Hinduism label INC wanted to dismemberment Muslim label. In result, Congress won all 4 seats.
Stock Exchange:
9.45 AM: BJP was trailing, Sensex broke 867.
12.50 PM: INC was trailing, sensex 339 bounce back.
Investors capital increased 2.21 lakh crore rupees.
How would be the government?
By keeping in mind election result, BJP may retain old faces. That is, CM will be Vijaybhai Rupani and deputy CM will be Nitinbhai Patel. Cabinet minister of ruling party may consist of, Saurabh Patel, Neemaben Acharya, Kumar Kanani, R.C. Faldu, Raman Patkar, Vibhavari Dave.
In the opposing side, Paresh Dhanai, Amreli, would become opposing minister.
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